Cybercrime and malware: explosive growth in two decades

The growth of cybercrime, and in particular the production of malware, is a worrying phenomenon. According to data from Barracuda Networks, the number of known malware has soared to over a billion today, up from just 25 million in 2009. Over the past year, 94 million new malware appeared. This exponential growth was tracked by the cybersecurity firm on its 20th anniversary, providing an opportunity to reflect on the evolution of malware since the turn of the millennium.

The historical evolution of cybercrime: from its origins to its expansion

Twenty years ago, cybercrime was not yet structured in organized campaigns as it is today. At the time, cyber defense focused on hardware solutions such as firewalls, signature-based antivirus and spam filters. Slowly, however, we have seen the emergence of unknown variants of malware, necessitating the implementation of heuristic analysis strategies to identify viruses based on suspicious characteristics in the code. The picture began to change radically between 2003 and 2009, when the growing diffusion of mobile devices, services and software expanded the perimeter of possible threats. Among these, financial fraud, phishing, ransomware, spyware, botnets and DoS and DDoS attacks have emerged.

The era of modern threats: web attacks and social engineering

The era of modern threats kicked off in 2009 with the emergence of modern ransomware. Web-based and social engineering attacks have developed, conducted by hacktivist groups or backed by nation-states. Faced with these new dangers, defenders reacted by developing the first scalable and real-time updateable security solutions. However, the situation continued to deteriorate over the decade, particularly with the expansion of Internet of Things (IoT) systems and hybrid cloud/on-premises IT environments. Cybercriminals have started using fileless malware and legitimate IT tools to circumvent security measures.

The future of cybersecurity: artificial intelligence and quantum computing

According to Barracuda experts, Artificial Intelligence (AI) will be a key element to defend companies in the coming years, contributing to the stability of society and the geopolitical landscape. AI will enable Security Operations Centers to be more intuitive and responsive, improving the detection, understanding and mitigation of security incidents. Quantum computing is another emerging technology that will have a significant impact on cybersecurity, as well as revolutionizing various industries, from medicine to weather forecasting. This will surely lead to new vulnerabilities and threats, which will require innovative and effective defense strategies.